The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves

How The Left Prospers From Prosperity

This paper investigates the relationship between fluctuations in economic growth, unemployment, and voting along a left–right axis. I estimate a model that explains how political fluctuations are caused by economic fluctuations in the OECD countries. I find that higher economic growth causes a shift to the left of policy sentiments. I hold the provision of social insurance by the welfare state ...

Why and How Brain Size Evolves

How altruism evolves: assortment and synergy.

If one defines altruism strictly at the population level such that carriers of the altruistic genotype are required to experience, on average, a net fitness cost relative to average population members, then altruism can never evolve. This is simply because a genetically encoded trait can only increase in a population (relative to alternative traits) if the mean fitness of individuals carrying t...

How XCS Evolves Accurate Classi ers

Due to the accuracy based tness approach, the ultimate goal for XCS is the evolution of a compact, complete, and accurate payo mapping of an environment. This paper investigates what causes the XCS classi er system to evolve accurate classi ers. The investigation leads to two challenges for XCS, the covering challenge and the schema challenge. Both challenges are revealed theoretically and expe...

As Science Evolves, How Can Science Policy?

Getting science policy right is a core objective of government that bears on scientific advance, economic growth, health, and longevity. Yet the process of science is changing. As science advances and knowledge accumulates, ensuing generations of innovators spend longer in training and become more narrowly expert, shifting key innovations (i) later in the life cycle and (ii) from solo researche...